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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Economist: 2013 Another Year of Transition For Real Estate.

Commercial real estate will have to endure another year of transition in 2013, as debates over the fiscal cliff and other key U.S. policies loom, an economist said today.

In a speech before executives gathered in Buckhead Tuesday, CBRE Inc. economist Asieh Mansour said companies are waiting for more clarity over fiscal and monetary policy, and for greater momentum in the recovery of the global economy. Most are probably going to be constrained next year and look instead at their growth strategies for 2014. Amid so much uncertainty, the outlook for job growth remains tepid, Mansour said.

Her comments came during commercial real estate giant CBRE Inc.’s market forecast. While the outlook wasn’t dominated by the gloom of similar predictions in recent years, the commercial real estate recovery remains slow and more isolated to certain types of properties, such as multifamily, and to cities such as New York, San Francisco and Houston.

Commercial real estate year of transition in 2013,fiscal cliff and key U.S. policies - Boise Commercial Real Estate
(Photo credit: mrshife)
Atlanta’s rebound has lagged those cities. Its recovery has also been hindered by only moderate growth in the global economy, a trend expected to continue next year. The capital markets are especially vulnerable the global economic slowdown. “In Atlanta you are not immune to what is happening in the global markets,” Mansour said.

The effects of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy drew a lot of attention. Nationally, companies remain less likely to ramp up hiring until there’s a political resolution of the more than $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that would take effect Jan. 1, a process referred to as the fiscal cliff. Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office said the fiscal cliff could trigger a recession.

There are indications Congress may take action later this month to extend the Jan. 1 deadline, Mansour said. More uncertainty surrounds how the Affordable Healthcare Act and the provisions of Dodd-Frank will impact business decisions. “Policy is dominating implications for [Commercial Real Estate],” she said.

There was some room for optimism.

While business remains cautious, U.S. consumers are regaining confidence in the economy, Mansour said.

Multifamily properties have gained momentum, and so have warehouse and distribution centers.

Central business districts with healthy tech sectors have performed well, she said.

By Douglas Sams Commercial Real Estate Editor- Atlanta Business Chronicle

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