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Showing posts with label housing recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing recovery. Show all posts

Monday, November 5, 2012

Fannie Mae Housing Survey Exposes Market Opportunities For Real Estate Investors

The September 2012 Fannie Mae Housing Survey shows that there is still a strong desire for home ownership, in spite of housing’s ups and downs over the past few years. The “American Dream” of homeownership is alive and well… Well, at least the dream part is.

Almost half of all renters surveyed indicated that they would prefer to own a home. But half of that number also said that their income has gone down over the past year while their household expenses have gone up. As a result, renters are less able to save for a down payment to buy a home. Further, almost half of all renters surveyed indicated that they have credit issues that would probably keep them from being able to qualify for a home mortgage.

On the one hand, it’s plain from this data that a general housing recovery is being hampered by a combination of economic factors – falling incomes and a rising cost of living, combined with lots of folks who have seen their credit damaged by delinquencies or foreclosures. It’s a tough combination that is sure to dampen any hopes of a general housing market recovery.

New Canalside Housing, Market Drayton, Shropshire Attractive new developments with more traditional style, are enhancing scenery
 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
But, that being said, what I see developing here is a major market opportunity for real estate investors who are willing to consider creative seller financing strategies or private lending. Indeed it is arguable that creative seller financing is going to be a growing future trend to accommodate a a vast market of potential and motivated buyers who can no longer access institutional credit sources.

We need roughly 1.5 million more homes sales per year than we currently have, to get to some sense of a “normal” housing market, based on historical averages of around 4.5 to 5 million home sales per year. There are, I’m guessing, probably 5 million tenants currently renting an apartment or house that would prefer to own their own home. The demand is there, but they need funding from non-traditional sources in order to make it happen.

Private investors have an unusual opportunity here to increase cash flow and net return on investment by stepping in with seller financing or private lending to accommodate this growing market segment.

Creative finance techniques are nothing new to real estate investors, but they are most often taught as a way for an investor to buy a home, and rarely taught as a way for an investor to sell a home. Yet the cash flow potential is significant, especially in a world where earnings from more traditional savings and investments has been falling.

Individual real estate investors or large, well funded capital companies that are already buying individual foreclosed homes could realize significant returns from creative seller financing. And there are a number of creative strategies that are already commonly used: “Lease with an Option to Buy”, “contract for deed”, “subject to the existing mortgage”, “taking back a note” and many more. I’d be willing to bet that for companies that plan to buy and rent large numbers of homes, selling with financing is likely to produce a much better return on investment than renting will, simply because a selling strategy alleviates the need for property management and maintenance expenses.

For individual “mom and pop” investors, properties sold with creative finance strategies are being used to generate income for specific purposes. For example, a local investor that I know personally has purchased a foreclosed condo in Florida with plans to sell it creatively and use the cash flow from that particular property to fund his daughters college expenses in a few years. Another friend who is not even a full time investor has used a beachfront property he inherited after Hurricane Katrina nearly destroyed it, to retire at the age of 56. He renovated the property, and lives off of the substantial income it generates as a vacation destination.

Few business models offer the flexibility and potential return that creative real estate finance does, for both buyers and sellers. This could be a great way to fill a pent up demand for home ownership that has been effectively removed from the traditional housing market.

By Donna S. Robinson

Donna S. Robinson is a real estate industry veteran, real estate entrepreneur, author and market analyst located in Atlanta, GA. Follow her on twitter at donnaconsults and read her blog at www.RobinsonRealEstateReport.com

Taken from: http://realtybiznews.com/fannie-mae-housing-survey-exposes-market-opportunities-for-real-estate-investors/98716566/
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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Real Estate Forecast 2013: The Housing Market

The housing market will improve moderately in 2013, but nobody will mistake this for a boom. The gains in activity and prices will be a welcome relief, but will leave many homeowners still underwater.

The usual way of discussing housing problems is misleading. Foreclosures, short sales, shadow inventory, upside-down mortgages are all symptoms. The fundamental problem that we have is an excess supply of housing units.

The normal housing vacancy rate for owned property (single family houses and condos not in the rental market) is around 1.5 percent nationally. Our high was three percent, but we are now down to 2.1 percent. Rental properties are normally about seven to eight percent vacant. (Local norms may be higher or lower.) We reached a peak of 11 percent rental vacancy a few years ago, but have improved to 8.6 percent in the latest observation. Despite recent gains, we still have too many houses for the current level of demand.

(Data note: these data are a little soft. They do not exactly match vacancy information from other sources, such as the decennial census. They should be taken as a general magnitude, not high fidelity information.)

Businesses in the home construction prepare for increase in sales volume in 2013 - US contractor of new Navy housing units on Ford Island
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The improvement we’ve seen recently results from a simple phenomenon: construction of new fewer housing units has been less than the growth of demand. Last year total units (single family houses plus the number of apartment units) ran just over 600,000. This year we’ll probably build about 750,000 units. At the peak of construction in 2005 there were 2.5 million units built. We need about 1.5 million new units per year to accommodate population growth, the desire for vacation homes as well as demolition of old units. That, too, is a soft number. The true annual need may be 1.4 million or 1.6 million, but it was never 2.5 million nor 0.6 million.

Our recent underbuilding has been the greatest aid to housing recovery. It did not act as fast as we might have expected (as fast as I actually had expected), because the recession slowed population growth, from both a smaller birth rate as well as less net migration from abroad. In addition, the population we did have used fewer housing units per person, as adult children moved back in with their parents. Slow improvement in the job market means slow movement of kids away from their family homes, but even though slow, the movement is in the right direction.

It’s too early for housing starts to get back to normal—and we certainly will not see above-normal construction anytime soon. But 2013 will probably see over one million total housing starts. This will be a substantial percentage gain over 2012, but remember that a 30 percent gain from diddly squat is still not too far away from diddly squat.

Home prices will rise in 2013, but only modestly. The most recent data suggest that national average housing prices are rising by roughly five percent annual rate. That’s too optimistic a projection for the next few years, however, because there are many owners of multiple underwater properties who will sell as soon as they don’t have to lay out cash. That increased number of houses on the market will limit price hikes.

Business cycles aside, there is not much reason for housing price to appreciate by more than three percent plus inflation, or about five percent in this current environment. Periodic booms and busts will push price gains above or below trend, and a change in tax laws that favors or disfavors real estate will cause one-time price changes. Ten-percent appreciation expectations are fanciful on a long-run basis.
Businesses in the home construction supply-chain should prepare for a nice increase in sales volume in 2013, which will bring the usual boom-time challenges: finding good workers, ensuring an adequate supply of product from vendors, securing the working capital needed to grow production. (See my article on vendor performance and my video about working capital for growing businesses.)

Apartment investors (and landlords of single family homes and condos) will find that their little boom does not strengthen much further. Rents have risen so much that owning is becoming cheaper than renting in many cities. Add in the expectation of price appreciation and we’ll soon see renters itching to buy their own homes. Times will not be hard for landlords, but they should not project further gains beyond what they secured in 2012.

By Bill Conerly

Taken from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2012/10/08/real-estate-forecast-2013-the-housing-market/
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